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The first one was fun, so let's try another! Middle stages of a 180-man SNG on Stars last night. The limper seems to be bad but able to fold when beat, the raiser is a Supernova, has shown to be solid and for all I know is a grinder of these games. First, the hand:
PokerStars Game #39095419453: Tournament #238607351, $11+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 2010/02/01 21:03:18 ET
Table '238607351 9' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Amzngguy (5692 in chips)
Seat 2: 00hondacbr (5878 in chips)
Seat 4: gaston117 (840 in chips)
Seat 5: Sobizzle21 (10285 in chips)
Seat 6: MisterTroll (1891 in chips)
Seat 7: someonelse (1287 in chips)
Seat 8: RyckyRych (2935 in chips)
Seat 9: Tricker39 (6707 in chips)
Amzngguy: posts the ante 25
00hondacbr: posts the ante 25
gaston117: posts the ante 25
Sobizzle21: posts the ante 25
MisterTroll: posts the ante 25
someonelse: posts the ante 25
RyckyRych: posts the ante 25
Tricker39: posts the ante 25
RyckyRych: posts small blind 125
Tricker39: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RyckyRych [8h 8d]
Amzngguy: calls 250
00hondacbr: folds
gaston117: folds
Sobizzle21: raises 750 to 1000
MisterTroll: folds
someonelse: folds
RyckyRych: calls 875
Tricker39: folds
Amzngguy: calls 750
*** FLOP *** [2s 3h Ad]
RyckyRych: bets 1910 and is all-in
My thought process and questions about it are these. First, is 88 strong enough to play in this spot (a hijack raise over a limper)? Now, assuming it is and I'm correct in going with this hand I felt that if I shoved Sobizzle would surely call with the pot odds he were getting, but it would cause the limper to fold.
I decided my best line would be to try and generate some fold equity by trying to stop and go the raiser, thinking that there would be a good chance the limper would fold to a 4x raise and a call... that didn't happen. When the ace hit the flop I wasn't sure if it were good or bad (I really feared the limper had an ace-rag he couldn't let go) but it might still be a good scare card for me as well. So I followed through with my plan and shoved the flop.
You'll see no results here as we don't give a shit about that, I'm more concerned about the thought process here. My main questions are: is 88 strong enough to commit with here and, if so, would simply shoving preflop be a better line?
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It's a shove or fold spot.
ReplyDelete88 is one of the worst hands to stop-n-go with because it rarely gets a better hand to fold on the flop.
15% 49.98%
88 50.02%
Whether sobizzle (a known regular) has a range wider than 15% is totally dependent on what the limper has been doing.
Usually I'd expect him to be raising here with {77+, AT+} or so. 88 is merely 44% against that range, so I think it's time to fold unless you are 100% certain that the limper isn't trying anything tricky. At that, you are pushign a ridiculously small edge.
Thanks Jen and everyone that replied via email and at Pokerology.
ReplyDeleteMy biggest question was how I would fare against the raiser's range with that limper in the hand. Without the limper I go with 88 on this guy here and would feel good enough about it.
The other thing was, if I'm playing the hand, was 88 too strong to turn into a bluff. After thinking about it I'm thinking it is.