Knocked Down

Time to get up again.

Brutal weekend. Again. I've been told when it goes bad, it goes BAD. I don't know how it wasn't worse to be very honest. How I've managed to hold myself together playing all these games has to be a testament to my dedication, discipline, and perhaps stubborness and stupidity.

I tried finding hands that I played wrong, or scared, or moronic. I even sent a couple to some people, all of whom have solid poker sense. So far, no indications that I really did anything out of line. I'm not sure if I'm happy or sad about that. On one hand I could at least try to fix something if I was doing something wrong and then blame that for what is happening. On the other hand, all I can control is the decisions I make. If my decisions are good... well, not much else I can do is there? Oh, I could hang myself but that would hurt too much.

Sometimes I am a slave to stats and numbers. I looked at my all-in EV graph again and about fell out of my chair laughing. The damn thing looks like I made it up. No one can run that bad... oh wait, yes I can. After I sulk about my luck sensibiity always comes back to me and says one of two things. First, imagine what it might feel like to run that GOOD. If you believe that things balance out, then its coming... I haven't ever had a good run anywhere near as extreme as this bad one. Second, I look at it as how well I've been able to get myself into favorable situations.

Looking at the graph for my past play, its been very steady and consistant over time. Of course it ebbs and flows, I've had high points and other low points. In the end it pretty much balances out and my actual EV stays pretty steady with my expected EV. We are talking tens upon tens of thousands of hands. I really just can't worry about how the last 10 or 100 or 1000 have went. I have to keep going, just like I always do. MDFR is still my biggest point of emphasis no matter how much I really want to lament my "luck".

Typing about it is one way to get it off my chest. Knowing that as I write this junk what the answers are to my bad luck problem reminds me of that fact. I know everyone goes thru this and they have all come out of it for the better. I've already have experiences with downswings, just not at the volume I've played the last few weeks. Perhaps that just makes it feel more severe than it really is. I'm thinking the upswings will feel the same way... when I can't miss a card, lose a key flip, just plain win more often than I should in the short-term. I know its coming.

I'm just hoping that when the big upswing does show up I'll be too busy playing so many games that I fail to notice.