Since Black Friday has closed out the serious online poker, I've started going out the play the free games at Gator's Dockside here in Apopka, even if just for entertainment's sake. Marc goes every week so its nice to be social and all that stuff. I've always enjoyed playing these things even if the competition is technically bad.
One thing that I do actually "practice" is playing live poker in general. Even though I'm having fun while playing I still actually try to see if I can pick up tells from these people. I also try to see how well I can keep track of people's chip stacks and such. I've played in these things off and on for years now but I figure I might as well not get too lazy in the even I get to play something more serious, like that Daytona tournament. Without all this time spent at these games the transition from computer to live would have been much tougher.
I've been fairly successful so far, I've picked up three or four wins at Gator's, one of which was just in time to qualify for All In Poker Series' June monthly. I'll tag along with Marc tomorrow and see what happens, even if I'm be a small stack. They give out extra chips for multiple wins so others there will have a slight edge on me there. So far for July I think I have three wins so I'll even out the odds a little in August.
Last night I decided to play with another group, Final Table Poker Tour, at El Potro in Apopka. A friend of mine that I work with, John (Johnny Callbox, as we call him) plays with this group each week. They seem to have their shit together a bit more as they can pump out 10-12 single table games in a 4 hour period. They have quarterly gigs and have some agreement with Deep Stacks University also, they always seem to have something set up with those guys. I think for their quarterly in August they have The Grinder set up to have some sort of class you can buy into.
Anyway, I went last night and ended up winning a game so I'm qualified for their gig now. The players here are different, generally they are older, don't raise quite as much, and will rarely reraise or check raise without the goods. I was reminded of that in the first game when I guy had limped in with a pocket pair, and then reraised my flop lead after hitting his set. Even though I had top pair I knew I was beat but I thought (wrongly) that he could have the draw often enough. Also, top 2 get the win (no heads-up) and we still had 8 players left at the table at 500-1000 blinds... it was time to get some chips. I got smoked instead, oh well.
I did have a slight confrontation with some blonde chick in the 4th game, the game I won. I think I got under her skin slightly at the 3rd game as I would make my move (meaning go all-in) just ahead of her several times. As I said, most of these people don't get the math involved, they don't really know when they are short in chips. She kept folding though and I kept showing strong hands (99, AK, AQ, etc) just to make sure they knew I wasn't just going on a lark. Of course I didn't show the T8h one.
Back to the 4th game. A younger guy (relatively speaking) raised to 600 at 100/200, the opening level of these games. I've seen him raise a wide group of hands, from 97s to 88 to AK. After a few calls, including the blonde chick, I elected to call from the SB as well. Flop comes 632 with 2 hearts for a pretty flush draw. Ah, what to do against these players?
I've been reading the Gus Hansen book "Every Hand Revealed" lately and thought I'd see how his philosphy might work against multiple opponents. These guys won't generally show aggro tendencies, the only guy I worried about was the guy that raised and I already knew he was quite wide... he'll fold to pressure from me. So I lead out 1500 into a 2600 pot, leaving 1700 behind me (yeah, they don't start deep). All folds excpet the blonde chick, who calls seemingly reluctantly.
The turn is a Kc... nice scare card I would think! If she did have A6 or something she could fold, or who knows she might even go with a worse flush draw. In any case, she has shown shge can fold at the other table, so I shove immediately with my flush draw as backup. She calls and turns over K4, ugh! She called the flop bet with a gutshot and hit her king instead, ouch! Guess she had enough of my shit and spite-called me on the flop and hit the turn. Thanks alot, Gus.
Anyway, the trouble starts as the river falls... the Kh! She hits trips and gets excited but fails to notice I get bailed out and hit my flush. My turn bet had put her all-in so she is gone... wait, the dealer gives her the pot! Umm, excuse me? I say to the dealer I have a flush, moving my cards on the table where they were displayed when we got all-in. Should be no problem, but the blonde chick seems to disagree, saying that I had already "folded". What? I inform her that I can't fold since we were all-in and the dealer does try to clean the matter up by apologizing for his mistake, but she cops an attitute and dumps the chips on the table in front of her, saying "It doesn't matter, I really don't care." and storms off. Nothing really serious, she didn't make a scene but I saw the shadow of the bitch in her as she left, likely the frustration of finding out you lost when you had the chips in your hand.
I went on to win that game without too much trouble, picking my spots as needed and staying out of big hands when three-handed. I saw the chick was sitting in a booth behind me while playing and decided that I would at least smooth things over as I might have been a little defensive about protecting my own hand. She was very cool about it by then and actually thanked me for taking the time to say something to her even though she knew I had done nothing wrong. That made me feel better also, generally I prefer people to think I'm nice even when I'm trying to destroy them at free poker.
Anyway, I always forget just how much fun it is to play these free live games. I don't get to banter quite as much (or with as much vulgarity) with the Final Table people as I do with the Gator crowd but I do enjoy the table talk. I'm sure they have no idea just how much of a clue I have as far as to how to play these games but I like it that way. I try not to "teach" anything, in fact I try to agree with most of what these guys say. If anything I get a better idea of how they play so I can adjust and in turn have more fun playing with everyone. I love playing the game still, even if I can't do it "for real" at the moment. Perhaps I'll make this my weekly fix for now. Who knows, I might win the monthly or the quarterly!
Friday, July 15, 2011
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
I'm still here...
... just not playing much poker.
Black Friday just sucked the life outta me really. Ever since that happened I haven't played much at all (when I could even play anyway). I was playing a little on UB until they finally shut out the US from the tables. I could have played on Bodog some but I just figured... why? Same with Cake or Carbon or whatever.
When Doyle's Room and such got hit on the second wave I decided to just withdraw everything else, even Bodog. I figure that they could be next or whatever so I might as well. I still have about $130 of my bankroll online in forms I can't withdraw but can still play with though. I have $30 of some type of bonus money on Carbon that I haven't "cleared" to withdraw and about $100 on Cake that I can't get since they have a $500 minimum to withdraw there. OK, fine. The rest I either got off already or its stuck on Full Tilt, UB, and sorta stuck on Doyle's Room (we'll see if I get that withdrawal). Bodog I'm sure I'll get and Carbon is a little iffy since I never tried before.
I was lucky that I got about $2000 off in the early part of April "just because" I wanted to keep some offline. I barely got that done too, probably just a couple days later and I'd been completely screwed. Still might get screwed on the rest of it as far as I can tell so far but I'll keep my hopes up.
I've been doing other things though. I started playing Dungeons and Dragons again. I got my son involved with something they call D&D Encounters, short games played at hobby shops and such every Wednesday night. He's really enjoyed it and I've been having fun just seeing how much the game has changed over the last 20+ years. I think some of the MMORPGs have influenced how they've set up the current rules... or maybe vice versa. I really can't tell. We've even started a game with a few of his friends in the neighborhood. I didn't realise how much fun tormenting children with dice rolls could be. Nobody's character has died though... not yet.
In June I am gonna start playing with that leftover cash. Hey, I had fun playing poker, I really do miss it. What I think I'm gonna do is "start over" in a sense and play micro cash games and SNGs and see if I can build it back up. If I end up blowing what I have left, big deal... I can't get this $130-odd anyway. If anything, the cash games should be decent practice for deep-stack play and the SNGs will still be good to keep my push-fold game sharp. Plus, it'll be fun... and this is why I started playing poker (or anything else)... for the fun of it.
Will I be updating my "progress"? Maybe. Probably. I'l be sure to let you know if I kill off the kid's characters in D&D though!
Black Friday just sucked the life outta me really. Ever since that happened I haven't played much at all (when I could even play anyway). I was playing a little on UB until they finally shut out the US from the tables. I could have played on Bodog some but I just figured... why? Same with Cake or Carbon or whatever.
When Doyle's Room and such got hit on the second wave I decided to just withdraw everything else, even Bodog. I figure that they could be next or whatever so I might as well. I still have about $130 of my bankroll online in forms I can't withdraw but can still play with though. I have $30 of some type of bonus money on Carbon that I haven't "cleared" to withdraw and about $100 on Cake that I can't get since they have a $500 minimum to withdraw there. OK, fine. The rest I either got off already or its stuck on Full Tilt, UB, and sorta stuck on Doyle's Room (we'll see if I get that withdrawal). Bodog I'm sure I'll get and Carbon is a little iffy since I never tried before.
I was lucky that I got about $2000 off in the early part of April "just because" I wanted to keep some offline. I barely got that done too, probably just a couple days later and I'd been completely screwed. Still might get screwed on the rest of it as far as I can tell so far but I'll keep my hopes up.
I've been doing other things though. I started playing Dungeons and Dragons again. I got my son involved with something they call D&D Encounters, short games played at hobby shops and such every Wednesday night. He's really enjoyed it and I've been having fun just seeing how much the game has changed over the last 20+ years. I think some of the MMORPGs have influenced how they've set up the current rules... or maybe vice versa. I really can't tell. We've even started a game with a few of his friends in the neighborhood. I didn't realise how much fun tormenting children with dice rolls could be. Nobody's character has died though... not yet.
In June I am gonna start playing with that leftover cash. Hey, I had fun playing poker, I really do miss it. What I think I'm gonna do is "start over" in a sense and play micro cash games and SNGs and see if I can build it back up. If I end up blowing what I have left, big deal... I can't get this $130-odd anyway. If anything, the cash games should be decent practice for deep-stack play and the SNGs will still be good to keep my push-fold game sharp. Plus, it'll be fun... and this is why I started playing poker (or anything else)... for the fun of it.
Will I be updating my "progress"? Maybe. Probably. I'l be sure to let you know if I kill off the kid's characters in D&D though!
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Baby Steps
I'm slowly working back toward the black in 2011. I have no problems with grinding it out either. As long as I can keep playing well all takes care of itself. I've had a couple bigger hits but nothing earth-stattering. I 4-way chopped the 6.40 super-turbo for about $330 (and the "win" as the chipleader) and I've managed to win a few of the 45-man turbo MTTs on UB. I've even won a couple 45-man SNGs on Stars. Good things are happening, just not great things.
Another good thing that happened was that FTP brought back the 54-man super-turbo SNGs by removing the On Demand gimmick from them. I did fine with the ODs but I really liked them as 54-man games since I could ration out my time knowing that I would be no longer than about 50 minutes with one of those things. They don't fill fast enough to grind them but they are great to fill a spot on my screen while I wait for bigger games. People play bad in them also. :)
We have a couple more weeks left in March and the plan is to keep plowing forward, as always. I'm hoping to use at least one night to play a bunch of 45-man SNGs on Stars and generate some FPPs, if I do it soon enough I'll have enough for the Turbo Takedown. Not sure it'll work out like that, but we'll see. I'll at least make Silver Star again, though I've yet to have time to play in the freeroll for that.
Wish me luck and I'll return the favor.
Another good thing that happened was that FTP brought back the 54-man super-turbo SNGs by removing the On Demand gimmick from them. I did fine with the ODs but I really liked them as 54-man games since I could ration out my time knowing that I would be no longer than about 50 minutes with one of those things. They don't fill fast enough to grind them but they are great to fill a spot on my screen while I wait for bigger games. People play bad in them also. :)
We have a couple more weeks left in March and the plan is to keep plowing forward, as always. I'm hoping to use at least one night to play a bunch of 45-man SNGs on Stars and generate some FPPs, if I do it soon enough I'll have enough for the Turbo Takedown. Not sure it'll work out like that, but we'll see. I'll at least make Silver Star again, though I've yet to have time to play in the freeroll for that.
Wish me luck and I'll return the favor.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
March On
Took the last couple of days off (OK, I played a couple things last night) just so I can get ready for the weekend. I really had to get busy to make my volume goals last weekend but things did turn out well. I actually managed to turn a profitable month for February, though it took a strong Sunday to do it. Most of it came on UB and those newer 45-man max turbos MTTs they have scheduled now.
I'm still down for the year but at least I proved that I could actually win a few hands when I needed to... it was getting downright depressing for a long time. Along with those good 45-man games on UB, I also played some of the turbos on Stars and even won a 180-man turbo as well! I made the final table in the $11 bounty and the $11 turbo MTT on UB during the last couple weeks also.
I've had to shore up on buble play in these 45-man games a little since its been some time since I played this many of them. Generally I found that I might have been just a tad too loose with my open-shoving, but as tight as some of these guys have been it might not have been that bad to do. Still, I probably need to trim a little of my range, notably some of the lower-ranked suited connectors I've been going with. For the most part I've been calling tight enough, save a few here and there where I felt the pot odds were just too good. In any case, I mostly use the final table bubble as my chipping-up point since people tend to want to get to that final... even though the games on UB only pay six places (its seven on Stars).
The plan for March is to keep up the hard work and get the games in. I'll keep playing the 45s on both Stars and UB while getting a few 90-man turbo knockouts on Full Tilt in the mix as well. I've been playing more on Sundays that I even have and that's been helpful too. Who knows, I might just win The Dime one day. As long as I can play well and run well enough I'll be happy.
On a sad note... jai-alai season is already over! F me. I love that shit. We saw some really good players on the last night this past Saturday, too bad we didn't hit many of our bets, though the one we hit was pretty good. Doesn't matter, its all in good fun anyway. I'll miss Jericho and Geno for sure. Can't wait until next year!
I'm still down for the year but at least I proved that I could actually win a few hands when I needed to... it was getting downright depressing for a long time. Along with those good 45-man games on UB, I also played some of the turbos on Stars and even won a 180-man turbo as well! I made the final table in the $11 bounty and the $11 turbo MTT on UB during the last couple weeks also.
I've had to shore up on buble play in these 45-man games a little since its been some time since I played this many of them. Generally I found that I might have been just a tad too loose with my open-shoving, but as tight as some of these guys have been it might not have been that bad to do. Still, I probably need to trim a little of my range, notably some of the lower-ranked suited connectors I've been going with. For the most part I've been calling tight enough, save a few here and there where I felt the pot odds were just too good. In any case, I mostly use the final table bubble as my chipping-up point since people tend to want to get to that final... even though the games on UB only pay six places (its seven on Stars).
The plan for March is to keep up the hard work and get the games in. I'll keep playing the 45s on both Stars and UB while getting a few 90-man turbo knockouts on Full Tilt in the mix as well. I've been playing more on Sundays that I even have and that's been helpful too. Who knows, I might just win The Dime one day. As long as I can play well and run well enough I'll be happy.
On a sad note... jai-alai season is already over! F me. I love that shit. We saw some really good players on the last night this past Saturday, too bad we didn't hit many of our bets, though the one we hit was pretty good. Doesn't matter, its all in good fun anyway. I'll miss Jericho and Geno for sure. Can't wait until next year!
Monday, February 14, 2011
Middle of February Report
Hmm, what to report.
Well, I've slowed the bleeding some as I'm not down near as much at this point as I was in January... I guess that's good! I actually have won a couple small things and I haven't been running badly as often, but nonetheless the big scores keep finding ways to elude me. I'm starting to think I should just stick to games with less than 100 players in it.
I continue to get myself into great spots though. I'll resteal and find I get called by a worse hand... but still lose. I'll be chipleader in a game with four players left, get it in as a favorite in three straight hands, and finish fourth. I know it will happen, but does it have to happen so often? I guess the more times I get into that position, the more times it will happen. I'd just like to get my fair share of firsts out of it also. After an extended stretch of time it really gets old, I don't care how much you understand variance and math and shit.
So I'll keep playing, and hopefully continue to play well. The sad thing is that I've felt very comfortable with my decision making and even seeing how often I've made the good decisions... just to see something go bad once the flop, turn, and river comes. Meh, I don't know what else to say, so I won't.
Last week wasn't so bad as I think I was just about break even for the period. I know, its sad to take break-even stretches as a positive but positive is what I really need right now. Like I said, I did notch a couple of wins in some smaller games so that does at least tell me that winning is something I can still do. In fact, I've pulled a profit for the year to date in these smaller games (90 and under players). Its those large-scale MTTs that I've played that have been eating me alive. I just haven't held on the key hands in any of them.
I've been happy with the progress of my post-flop play also. I'm not falling for the traps as much and I've continued to practice better pot control also. I've been a little more active in finding good spots to speculate in position when stacks are deep enough and that has helped me pick up a few chips also. I still don't play a lot of hands early and I doubt I ever will but at least I'm not SNG/super-tight anymore.
I am continuing to refine my opening raises later in games also. I'm learning to find raise amounts small enough to save a few chips here and there while still trying to make them large enough to do the job properly. Trying to balance which hands to raise, when, from where, and even on who is something I've always been trying to adapt to. Same with ranging people when deciding on calling. I've been surprised just how often I've called and actually been ahead, sometimes far ahead... I just need to actually win these hands occasionally.
I think I'll take tomorrow off since I'll be playing a full Sunday schedule this week. The kid is off from school Monday so I'm taking that day off from work. Hopefully I'll also have one of the skylights on the house replaced as well. I'd rather not burn another day off just to be home for that.
Then again, I'm itching to play again. I might just play tomorrow anyway. That's a good sign, right? Wanting to continue the chase for the big score is a good thing, right? I just figure that if I'm playing solid I should keep playing, right? We'll see, I might take the time to do some extra review of some of my play, just to be on the safe side. In any case, I'll keep fighting.
Well, I've slowed the bleeding some as I'm not down near as much at this point as I was in January... I guess that's good! I actually have won a couple small things and I haven't been running badly as often, but nonetheless the big scores keep finding ways to elude me. I'm starting to think I should just stick to games with less than 100 players in it.
I continue to get myself into great spots though. I'll resteal and find I get called by a worse hand... but still lose. I'll be chipleader in a game with four players left, get it in as a favorite in three straight hands, and finish fourth. I know it will happen, but does it have to happen so often? I guess the more times I get into that position, the more times it will happen. I'd just like to get my fair share of firsts out of it also. After an extended stretch of time it really gets old, I don't care how much you understand variance and math and shit.
So I'll keep playing, and hopefully continue to play well. The sad thing is that I've felt very comfortable with my decision making and even seeing how often I've made the good decisions... just to see something go bad once the flop, turn, and river comes. Meh, I don't know what else to say, so I won't.
Last week wasn't so bad as I think I was just about break even for the period. I know, its sad to take break-even stretches as a positive but positive is what I really need right now. Like I said, I did notch a couple of wins in some smaller games so that does at least tell me that winning is something I can still do. In fact, I've pulled a profit for the year to date in these smaller games (90 and under players). Its those large-scale MTTs that I've played that have been eating me alive. I just haven't held on the key hands in any of them.
I've been happy with the progress of my post-flop play also. I'm not falling for the traps as much and I've continued to practice better pot control also. I've been a little more active in finding good spots to speculate in position when stacks are deep enough and that has helped me pick up a few chips also. I still don't play a lot of hands early and I doubt I ever will but at least I'm not SNG/super-tight anymore.
I am continuing to refine my opening raises later in games also. I'm learning to find raise amounts small enough to save a few chips here and there while still trying to make them large enough to do the job properly. Trying to balance which hands to raise, when, from where, and even on who is something I've always been trying to adapt to. Same with ranging people when deciding on calling. I've been surprised just how often I've called and actually been ahead, sometimes far ahead... I just need to actually win these hands occasionally.
I think I'll take tomorrow off since I'll be playing a full Sunday schedule this week. The kid is off from school Monday so I'm taking that day off from work. Hopefully I'll also have one of the skylights on the house replaced as well. I'd rather not burn another day off just to be home for that.
Then again, I'm itching to play again. I might just play tomorrow anyway. That's a good sign, right? Wanting to continue the chase for the big score is a good thing, right? I just figure that if I'm playing solid I should keep playing, right? We'll see, I might take the time to do some extra review of some of my play, just to be on the safe side. In any case, I'll keep fighting.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Goodbye, January
Wow, that was one rough month. I don't even know what to say that hasn't already been said. I can recycle some things but I'd rather not rehash all of that. We'll just move on from here. FTR, I was down $1700 for the month, which is by far the most I've even been down in a single month. I've only had a few down months (thank God) but this one was really a doosy.
One positive I can take from it all is that I did accomplish my basic volume goals. I am currently Bronze Iron Man, SilverStar, and Contender Status on FTP, Stars, and UB respectively. I did hope to get a little more in total buy-ins but considering the losses maybe I'm happy I didn't, LOL. Despite running as bad as I did I also managed to set a nre career-high cash on Stars with that 2nd place finish, so that's a good sign. One day I might run well heads-up.
As for February, same goals. I want to maintain the volume and keep making the best decisions I can. Eventually I have to start winning my share of flips and such... at least the math should say I would. Of course we can argue that each hand is really one unto itself, blah blah blah. I prefer to think that the powers that be owes me as it might just keep me sane.
I've done a few videos for Pokerology though and doing that has helped my mindset by giving me a little break from playing and seeing poker in a different way. Doing this also helps keep things in its proper place, either by working through a problem or just by seeing just how bad other people can play. Sure, they get rewarded at times but as long as I can still identify (correctly) what is right or wrong, well, hopefully I'll be able to continue to learn from it all. Maybe some small thing I pick up on could be the one thing that helps me break out of my downswing... it has to start somewhere.
In any event, I'll keep on keeping on as long as I don't go insane. Might help if I already was.
One positive I can take from it all is that I did accomplish my basic volume goals. I am currently Bronze Iron Man, SilverStar, and Contender Status on FTP, Stars, and UB respectively. I did hope to get a little more in total buy-ins but considering the losses maybe I'm happy I didn't, LOL. Despite running as bad as I did I also managed to set a nre career-high cash on Stars with that 2nd place finish, so that's a good sign. One day I might run well heads-up.
As for February, same goals. I want to maintain the volume and keep making the best decisions I can. Eventually I have to start winning my share of flips and such... at least the math should say I would. Of course we can argue that each hand is really one unto itself, blah blah blah. I prefer to think that the powers that be owes me as it might just keep me sane.
I've done a few videos for Pokerology though and doing that has helped my mindset by giving me a little break from playing and seeing poker in a different way. Doing this also helps keep things in its proper place, either by working through a problem or just by seeing just how bad other people can play. Sure, they get rewarded at times but as long as I can still identify (correctly) what is right or wrong, well, hopefully I'll be able to continue to learn from it all. Maybe some small thing I pick up on could be the one thing that helps me break out of my downswing... it has to start somewhere.
In any event, I'll keep on keeping on as long as I don't go insane. Might help if I already was.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Knocked Down
Time to get up again.
Brutal weekend. Again. I've been told when it goes bad, it goes BAD. I don't know how it wasn't worse to be very honest. How I've managed to hold myself together playing all these games has to be a testament to my dedication, discipline, and perhaps stubborness and stupidity.
I tried finding hands that I played wrong, or scared, or moronic. I even sent a couple to some people, all of whom have solid poker sense. So far, no indications that I really did anything out of line. I'm not sure if I'm happy or sad about that. On one hand I could at least try to fix something if I was doing something wrong and then blame that for what is happening. On the other hand, all I can control is the decisions I make. If my decisions are good... well, not much else I can do is there? Oh, I could hang myself but that would hurt too much.
Sometimes I am a slave to stats and numbers. I looked at my all-in EV graph again and about fell out of my chair laughing. The damn thing looks like I made it up. No one can run that bad... oh wait, yes I can. After I sulk about my luck sensibiity always comes back to me and says one of two things. First, imagine what it might feel like to run that GOOD. If you believe that things balance out, then its coming... I haven't ever had a good run anywhere near as extreme as this bad one. Second, I look at it as how well I've been able to get myself into favorable situations.
Looking at the graph for my past play, its been very steady and consistant over time. Of course it ebbs and flows, I've had high points and other low points. In the end it pretty much balances out and my actual EV stays pretty steady with my expected EV. We are talking tens upon tens of thousands of hands. I really just can't worry about how the last 10 or 100 or 1000 have went. I have to keep going, just like I always do. MDFR is still my biggest point of emphasis no matter how much I really want to lament my "luck".
Typing about it is one way to get it off my chest. Knowing that as I write this junk what the answers are to my bad luck problem reminds me of that fact. I know everyone goes thru this and they have all come out of it for the better. I've already have experiences with downswings, just not at the volume I've played the last few weeks. Perhaps that just makes it feel more severe than it really is. I'm thinking the upswings will feel the same way... when I can't miss a card, lose a key flip, just plain win more often than I should in the short-term. I know its coming.
I'm just hoping that when the big upswing does show up I'll be too busy playing so many games that I fail to notice.
Brutal weekend. Again. I've been told when it goes bad, it goes BAD. I don't know how it wasn't worse to be very honest. How I've managed to hold myself together playing all these games has to be a testament to my dedication, discipline, and perhaps stubborness and stupidity.
I tried finding hands that I played wrong, or scared, or moronic. I even sent a couple to some people, all of whom have solid poker sense. So far, no indications that I really did anything out of line. I'm not sure if I'm happy or sad about that. On one hand I could at least try to fix something if I was doing something wrong and then blame that for what is happening. On the other hand, all I can control is the decisions I make. If my decisions are good... well, not much else I can do is there? Oh, I could hang myself but that would hurt too much.
Sometimes I am a slave to stats and numbers. I looked at my all-in EV graph again and about fell out of my chair laughing. The damn thing looks like I made it up. No one can run that bad... oh wait, yes I can. After I sulk about my luck sensibiity always comes back to me and says one of two things. First, imagine what it might feel like to run that GOOD. If you believe that things balance out, then its coming... I haven't ever had a good run anywhere near as extreme as this bad one. Second, I look at it as how well I've been able to get myself into favorable situations.
Looking at the graph for my past play, its been very steady and consistant over time. Of course it ebbs and flows, I've had high points and other low points. In the end it pretty much balances out and my actual EV stays pretty steady with my expected EV. We are talking tens upon tens of thousands of hands. I really just can't worry about how the last 10 or 100 or 1000 have went. I have to keep going, just like I always do. MDFR is still my biggest point of emphasis no matter how much I really want to lament my "luck".
Typing about it is one way to get it off my chest. Knowing that as I write this junk what the answers are to my bad luck problem reminds me of that fact. I know everyone goes thru this and they have all come out of it for the better. I've already have experiences with downswings, just not at the volume I've played the last few weeks. Perhaps that just makes it feel more severe than it really is. I'm thinking the upswings will feel the same way... when I can't miss a card, lose a key flip, just plain win more often than I should in the short-term. I know its coming.
I'm just hoping that when the big upswing does show up I'll be too busy playing so many games that I fail to notice.
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