Sunday, October 24, 2010

Mini Deep Stack MTT at Daytona Beach Poker Room Report

OK, lets see what I can remember.

This Saturday I played in what is called the Texas Holdem Poker Tour's Mini Deep Stack Tournament at the Daytona Beach Poker Room. THPT is a bar league really... where you play for free, etc. However once a month they get with Daytona for this $35 buy-in MTT. The good thing about this is that half the field are these same players I would see playing for free... and they are horrible. That makes things a bit easier to be very blunt and honest.

Anyway, the event is really a $30+25 as I'm sure the $35 is $30+5 of rake. You get 3500 chips for that. But you can add a $10 "dealer appreciation" for 1000 more and "donate" $10 to a charity they have sponsered there are another 1000 chips. Throw in 500 more for signing up early and its $55 for 6000 chips. I did so.

We had 166 runners sign up. I go to my seat and find an older gentlemen sitting in it, so I ask him what seat he was. He says it and its the same as mine! I say "But I bought this like an hour ago" and he replied, "Well, I bought mine on Thursday!" OK, you win, pal. As soon as that is over I hear an announcement that the computer has "resold" some seats and to wait for a new seat to be assigned... great start.

They eventually open up a table for us castoffs to sit at, at least they didn't start without us! Blinds start at 25/50 and go up every 20 minutes... some "Mini Deep Stack" this is! Still, it falls to my favor since it'll become a turbo sooner that these guys will realize.

The fest few blind levels I don't get involved much at all but I do take note that just about everyone is limping in... no raising. I was going to maybe limp along in a few spots but I never really had any cards I wanted to do it with. I did get to raise over a limp a couple times and each time the limper would fold, even this early. Hmmm, as suspected, these guys don't want to take too many risks.

After a while I was able to figure out which ones would limp the weaker hands and which ones would limp the TT/AQ/AK type hands, and not fold it. Generally it was the older players doing so, which, I admit, can be a bit of a stereotype. One guy, when he got a few chips, started limping quite a lot with his A4c and KQ type hands and would spew chips away. Another guy would limp anything suited.

Post flop it sure was fit or fold in the early going, it would check around, maybe even until the river, then a guy would bet and everyone would fold. I hit top pair once from the big blind, bet out, and took the pot easily. This happened for at least an hour.

Blinds up to 200/400 now (level 4) and I still have about a starting stack. One limptard, who had gotten lucky by rivering a higher two-pair and also cracked AA on another occasion, limped in from the CO with a 6BB stack. I find AJo in the BB and push over the top, expecting a scared fold. Instead he makes the "give up call" and flips KTo. Numbered flop comes, then the T hits the turn. Great. But then the river brings the J and I eliminate the young luckbox and win my first substantial pot of the day.

The next level (300/600) one of the older guys limps in and I have AJo in the SB, with about 7200 in chips or so. I've seen him limp/fold before, and he was the guy that had his AA cracked, which he raised. I figured he would most likely fold to a full shove since I had him covered and was right, he folded without much thought. Still, I was a little leery that he might have limped a bigger ace but felt that wouldn't be often enough from what I had seen.

At the next level (400/800) the owner of THPT was moved to our table. There was a bounty on him for a $195 BI to some event, so people might have tried for him since he had about 20K in chips, becoming our table leader. He seemed a capable player, thought would still overlimp a few hands. He did raise 98s once, other times it was TT or the like. I had to keep an eye on him for sure as he was three seats to my left.

At this level, a woman who was moved to our table had this look that she knew what she was doing, but played like she had no clue of how stack sizes worked at all. In one hand, BvB, she raised over the SB limp to 2400, and then the SB shoved about 3000 more. She then tanked and folded after raising about 40% of her stack. Two hand later, she raised half her stack from the button into my BB, where I see ATo. I shove and she calls KQo. I hold and she leaves the table as if she was shot by the bad luck bullet. GG chica.

Just before break, I find AQh on the button. Matt, the owner of THPT is in the BB as one seat is open. I raise 2.5x to 2000 and he makes a flippant call with his chip stack, making a remark that he'll "call with his junk". The flop is junk, like 853 or something, and he check/folds, "missed with his junk". I'll take it.

A couple hands later I took out another short stack and I am sitting around 20BBs, which brings us to break. From what I see only about 40 players have dropped out, confirming some scared play is going on since most players are under 10BB for sure. I compare a few notes with one of my friends that made the trip, Marc, and he notices some of the same things even though his table was a little more willing to play back with calls.

Next level (600/1200) I shoved BvB and got no call, then raised again from the button while Matt was not back from break yet (I had 99). The SB again folded without much thought, confirming that he was a nit. Later I would see that he limp/called with JJ, losing the race to a shorter stack, further confirming my read.

Our table later breaks and now I have to start over with reads. New level now (800/1600) and this table has a guy with a huge stack, playing nearly every hand and luckboxing on the shorter stacks it seems. Clearly he wasn't an overly skilled player by any means, but did seem to understand a little about using some of his bets to scare people. Fortune would have it that I never had to tangle with this gentleman, but it may have helped train the table to be a little cautious as I was able to shove over a couple limps to pick up some pots.

Another good break comes when I shoved the button with AJo and the shortish SB called with ATs. He flops a T and I'm looking to lose half my stack, but fortune shines on me and brings a J on the river to send him packing. I now have about 15BBs and am a bit more comfortable in relation to the table.

An orbit later, I raise AQo from the CO over a EP limper to 6400, another older guy. This time he flats me (!) leaving maybe 4000 behind him. Uh-oh. The flop comes rags and he checks. I make the bet and he calls, we both have AQ! Nice split pot there, old timer. Scared the shit out of me though.

I think we are at 5 tables of 10 players now, 20 pay. Blinds move to 1000/2000 and short stacks are begging to stay alive. Not much happens for me here these next couple of levels, but I do pick up a couple pots with some shoves or raises. A couple people are keeping an eye on me for what I might be doing these "huge shoves" with, but I manage to get to 40K in chips.... just before the blinds move to 2000/4000 now... geez, nice jump!

I win another pot to get to 60K (can't remember how at the moment, I think I won a race with KQ over 88 though when one of the older guys that was "watching me" called me). We get down to about 35 players and I get moved to a new table. Here the chip leader came with me but he was penalized for showing his cards without announcing his action properly or something... so he has to sit 6 hands. Anyway, another guy, maybe a German, not sure, has quite a few chips and is a bit of a talker. He seems to have a little idea and is raising, not limping so much. This may be a problem, so I make sure to watch him closely.

Anyway, blinds are moving up and people are certainly feeling the bubble. I've gone card dead for about 20-30 minutes and my stack shrinks a bit smaller. Under 30 players now and the UTG player, a younger lady, moves all-in for 9000 at the new blind level of 4000/8000. An older guy to my right flats. I look at JJ and decide to push my 45K over him. All fold to this guy, who tanks. Eventually he folds but I lose KK to JJ and am down to 36K now. The flat/folder tells me he had AJh and I said "nice fold", then he reminds me he would have made a flush. Oh, my bad.

More dead hands lead to the true bubble. A young kid to my left has been milking a micro stack the whole time, having caught a set on the river once when AI from the BB one time already. He now is AIPF from the BB again. UTG limps, the German/whatever he is also limps, and I complete from the SB with 97c. The flop is a very interesting 653 with two hearts, giving me a belly-buster draw. We hear that someone busted, meaning the bubble is guaranteed to be broken, but I do not know how short the guy was. The UTG checks, and the German says, "Oh, I was just gonna check down, but now I just bet my hand" and bets about the pot. Ugh.

What does this bet really mean? I'm sure I'm behind, but how many outs do I really have? Eight? Fourteen? Fewer? I can't seem to find out about the guy that busted (where's the lobby?) and I also have the UTG to worry about, which I haven't quite figured out yet. Ugh again. I fold and the AI BB makes his straight to stay in... but I would have split the pot. Oh well. Not being able to find out about the bubble buster was key. Good chance he was another shorty but I elected to play safe without enough information.

We move to 5k/10k blinds and eventually I can't seem to get my chips in. I now have 20k on the button with 14 or so left and see J9s as it folds to me. The German, while lost some of his stack with a bit of a loose play, is now in the BB. I shove and pray that I somehow hit my hand... but wait! He looks at his cards and laughs. "I was gonna call without looking, but then I look anyway," he remarks. He keeps looking at it and eventually says, "but I can't call with this, its just 92!" and he folds! I almost double up without a showdown, hooray for live players! He then goes on the explain that he was going to just call, but when he saw he had a "2" he couldn't call... if it was 95o or something he'd have called.

Anyway, a break for the good guy perhaps. Next hand, I get A5o and turbo shove my 35k now. This time the German snaps from the SB... uh-oh. He flips over KQo, I'm ahead! I hit the ace to be sure and move to 8k. Whew. The German's once formidable stack has been eaten away. I managed to hold at around 8k for a bit and eventually the German busts, losing AQQQ and XX. We're off to the final table!

I find my buddy Marc has also survived to this point. He is about the same shape as I am, looking to make a move to get some chips. I fully expect the FT to be a nit fest but I am quickly proven wrong as chips start flying! One guy, who had hurt the German earlier with a well-timed AA, decided to call an overshove AI from another young lady on an all-club flop with Kc8x, she had limped into his BB with KJh and shoved the JXXccc board and held. They count her chips and this guy says "Wow, I didn't realize she had so much!" Ummm, way to stack off there pal. He goes from the CL to a micro stack and busted out 8th... ouch.

Marc is next to go on a fairly standard he pushes/someone calls right hand but failed. GG Marc for about $230ish or so, good for 7th place. Another big hand then happens where the guy to my right limps UTG and the SB and BB call. The flop is QT9 and the SB leads out for about the pot. The BB (Matt the "bounty guy" from earlier) folds and UTG promptly says "all-in".

I get a great read that this guy isn't too familiar with live poker now. The SB calls and the dealer then goes to count out chips. The dealer asks UTG "What do you have?" and the guy discreetly shows the dealer his cards, LOL. "No, I need to count your chips!" and Marc and I get a nice quiet chuckle out of it. BTW, did you guess their hands? The SB has... AQ! UTG? Of course he flopped the straight with KJo... what else would he have? This is important later.

So now there are five of us left. I get 88 UTG next hand and shove my stack of 7500 or so, I think we are now at 10k/20k. Matt calls me out of the SB and shows ATo... off to the races again, cue Lucky the Rabbit from the dog track! The board bricks us both so I double up. I can tell that Matt realizes I'm not one of your standard bar players (which would be confirmed after the event).

A few hands later a short stack finally runs out of time (I think I took him out with JJ, I can't recall where that JJ hand was, LOL) and we have four left. Matt is next to bust out as the guy to my right takes him out and we are now three-handed, the aggressive young lady to my right being the third. Should be a fun finish between the two of these players.

We get to 10k/15k (yes, you see that right, LOL) and I push on the woman with K3o for a full 10BBs. She instantly says "well, I HAVE to call that" and flips up 87s! WTF? Had to? Really? I admit she had gathered some chips, but snap call a BvB 10BB shove 3-handed? No antes? Wow, just wow.

My heart plummets to my colon as I see the flop: 9s6sX. OMG. Are you kidding me? An open-ended straight flush draw? The turn is a brick.... and I can tell I'm still squeezing my rectum. The river falls... as a brick! I hold with K-high and double up.

A few hands go by, pot here, another there, and eventually the next major hand comes into play. The woman limps the button, the man calls from the SB and I look at JJ on the BB. I'm not sure what the blinds are at but I elect to shove as I now had the woman covered (she had spewed a few chips and I felt she was losing it a little). She makes the call with the T9h! The SB folds and I turn over my hand and can almost feel the woman's soul crush under the weight of my cards. I easily hold and send the now disgusted lady to the rail. We are heads-up!

Problem is... I can't figure this guy out. From what I can tell, and my only read, is that he will bet when he "has it" and call if he "might". Absolutely the worst guy for me to try and play with. Also, trying to count all these chips as we go isn't something I'm use to... there is a lot of them! I know I'm down, and I know what I have, so I'm OK in that regard.

Anyway, first hand HU and I have the button with J4o. I limp and we see a flop. J65 is felted. He goes all-in! I'm like, whhaaaaaaaa? Usually HU top pair of any kind is a big hand, but to a shove? Can he do this with a draw? I don't think so. Knowing what I know, this guy might have just flopped quads. Considering my kicker, I let it go... but I just have to wonder.

I pick another wonderful time to go card dead. Nothing even remotely close to shoving/raising comes my way save one (he limp/folded) and we are generally staying close though I feel I've lost a little to him overall. He makes this overshove play a couple more times, leading me to believe that he has as least TP these times and doesn't want to risk being outdrawn. However I get the feeling he is doing this just a shade too often and I need to catch him doing this. If I have TP, regardless of kicker, I'm going next time.

The final hand comes at 15k/30k and I check the BB with 93o (yep, that hand). The flop is 974, not sure of the suits. I check, and if he goes I'm going also. He checks behind. The turn is... a 9! I now bet out 40k, to which he says, "OK, I'll call". Hmmm. What does THAT mean? I immediately think he might have the draw, not the case 9. At this point I decide that I can't let this go.

The river is a T, no flush is out there. I don't like the card... not at all. I figure that he COULD have 86 here, but J8? Maybe. I could see that. But XT? Maybe. Some sort of two-pair? Sure he could. He could have 65, or X7 for all I know. Anyway, I just CAN'T fold trips here so I shove. He calls and flips over J8 for the gutshot straight. GG me.

A disappointing finish but a good run overall for sure. Taking second place earned me $662 of cold, hard cabbage. I held when I had to up until that final hand so I can't complain. I never saw a huge amount of good hands over that nearly six-hour run (JJ and AQ being the best I saw) and I was able to take advantage of the mostly passive play when I could.

Overall I loved having that "edgy feeling" when I was playing. Not a nervous feeling by any stretch, but I could tell I was ready to play. I had a decent idea of what some of these guys would play like (wearing their THPT shirts was a nice tell, LOL) and having some "experience" with playing at these bar leagues meant I was completely foreign to the live game. The result wasn't too bad either.

I just might have to go next month!

Monday, September 27, 2010

Ouch, that hurt.

I think I just experienced the worst weekend of my life... poker-wise that is (otherwise it was pretty good). Things got ugly on Friday and failed to improve and it really hurt, especially since the month was going pretty well so far. Still, I was reading a post on Pokerology and ended up replying to it with the following. I really liked what I wrote and my mindset about this subject, so I thought I'd cross-post it here:

I don't know the exact numbers, but this weekend I think I played around 60 games and was ITM just twice, and one of those was for a 0% ROI since it was a satty SNG. That other cash was only $40 or something. Considering I probably spent about $1k in buy-ins, I wasn't too happy about it all.

So what do I do? I bitched, I moaned, I complained, I yelled various curses. I considered sacrificing one of my cats to avoid any further dismay. I did these things each time my KK got run over by A3o or my set was chased down by a straight or flush. I then got over it and moved on to the next hand... what else should I do?

I reviewed my play and found nothing unusual. Maybe I could have taken a better line in this hand to save me a bet here or something, but I made no vulgar mistakes, especially at push/fold moments. I even caught a few guys restealing/bluffing on me, but unfortunately they sucked out. Poker sucks when it happens that way, huh?

Based on the decisions I made I had a pretty good weekend actually. My game selection was excellent. I felt confident in my decisions, in fact I would say most of my hands were fairly straightforward, which is always welcome when playing 4-6 tables at once. As I sit here now... I really can't complain.

Times like these are when I really appreciate the fact that I have a bankroll management and cashout plan in place. I still "made" money due to the decent amount of volume I put in, and while my bankroll took a vicious slashing I know I have enough protection in place that I don't have to worry about moving down. If I were doing this for a living, I'd be able to handle stretches like this in stride... and look forward to the next session.

Who knows... the next session I just might run like the gods. You better hope its not against you.

Friday, September 24, 2010

Whoops

Seems I forgot about my blog again. :)

Nothing exciting has really happened since I was last here on the online felts though things have been going OK. I've been playing a number of the 54-man super-turbo SNGs on FTP lately and I have to admit I really like them. They are mostly push-fold games, they don't time a lot of time and most of the players suck at them. Pretty good combination.

The only exciting news I have is that I've been persuaded to do a couple of articles for Pokerology (meaning I'll actually be paid). Tim (who runs the site) really wanted to revamp his content and wanted me to contribute. I won't be doing anything about strategy, I'll tackle stuff like bankroll management, the cashout system I use, and maybe a tutorial on how to use Pokerstove.

We have talked about doing videos both for the two articles and also of me playing. I've done a few videos now and I have to admit its fun to do. Yeah, I curse a bit and I realize I'm no pro, but I think I make enough comments and I'm not afraid to say that I might not be doing the absolute right thing every time. I think doing that is a different approach and even trying to take time to actually go back and try to find the answers to my own questions might be something nobody else really does. I don't know... we'll play with the idea I guess.

Anyway, I hope to play some this weekend and continue plugging forward with my own game. We'll see!

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Labor Day Weekend

I was able to sit down for an extra-long session of poker since it was a 3-day weekend due to Labor Day. As I usually do I played all of the Sunday mini-Majors like the Double Deuce on FTP and such. Cashed a couple of those and min-cashed a number of others throughtout the day but it wasn't until Monday morning that I didn't hit anything big.

I started on Friday night by playing for a few hours like I would do on a typical Tuesday/Thursday night gig. The night was successful since I was able to win a $21 super-turbo 54-man SNG for $388. Throw in a few other cashes and the night was a good one with a profit of $366 over 21 games.

Saturday I kept fairly tame, I got some games in but nothing heavy. Had a few cashes but nothing worthy of note though I did profit for the session (about $75 over 17 games).

Sunday was when the volume was coming. I started earlier than normal, around noon, so I could get in the $11 turno on Stars and a couple other things. I played well but ran worse for the next 12 hours or so and ended up down about $500 over the 51 games that started on Sunday proper. I scared a few things and had some chances but nothing really big came out of them.

As we rolled in Monday morning I guess things started going more my way. I took third in a $12 180-man SNG on Stars that I played almost on a whim (Stu talked me into it and he wasn't even talking to me, LOL). But the big score was on Ultimate Bet, where I was able to win the nightly (morningly?) $44 turbo MTT. That score was $1335 and some change. This thing doesn't even start until 2:30am so you can imagine how I was starting to feel when I won it at about 4:40am. Nice way to start your day, so to speak! With that, after playing a little more here and there on Monday I was $1250 to the good over 21 games on Labor Day.

Add it all up and the weekend tally was pretty solid... no complaints here. Since I didn't sleep at all on Monday you can imagine that I took Tuesday night off to try and catch up. I certainly had fun, like always, but its also much more fun when you managed to win.

This weekend, well, really starting tonight, I'm going to try to play a few of the mFTOPS events starting tonight with the 5x turbo 6-max shootout. I don't think I've ever cashed in on of these mFTOPS events before but I haven't played all that many of them either. Maybe this time I take a ride in one and find something big. I'll be sure to let you know in here if I do (or don't).

Monday, August 30, 2010

Yes, I know...

... that I suck at updating my blog.

Not much really happened after that nice win I had, in fact it all went to hell for the most part. I probably dropped about $500 or more in the last couple of weeks in fact. Got close a few times but just never quite winning the key hands. Sure, it happens, but when it comes in big bunches it can really test a guy.

In fact, I almost quit this past Saturday. I got in enough to earn my Iron Man points on FTP and about had enough of the beats. The sequence of events that caused these thoughts happened in about five minutes. First, I lost AA to K2h on the true bubble of the $44 turbo on Stars. I then took a viscious beat of some kind in another hand, and all the while I lost three hands as a favorite in a 90-man knockout SNG I was plaing to go from 2nd with 16 left to out 13th. I'm not ashamed to tell you that it hurt. Coupled with how things had gone the previous couple weeks and I was ready to hit the XBox.

As it turns out I collected my thoughts and continued my schedule, which was to play thru the 5pm slot of games I normally try. Among those was a $26 90-man turbo knockout that I had entered. As it ends up I chopped it for a win with a guy that was having a some internet issues (yeah, I'm a nice guy) and took about $536 from it. That reallllllly helped.

After dinner and a walk I played some more in the evening. I had a few decent games and made the money in a few, a couple on Cake and a couple others here and there. Around 1am I only had a single game left (the $22 turbo MTT on UB, which I min-cashed) so I elected to sign up for a $26 turbo Rush MTT to play along side of it. Rush is fast-paced so I liked the idea of keeping active while playing the other game. I ended up winning it for a slick $923.40! Not a bad cash for a game I joined at the spur-of-the-moment. See, you just never know.

The best thing about it was I decided to record my screen using Camtasia just before it started so I caught the entire MTT in a video. I'm going to let Tim at Pokerology cut it up to post on the site just for shits and giggles (and to learn from, I'm sure there is a few spots I can get something out of). It was more intended to follow the play in the $22 game but as it ends up its the $26 afterthought that made it a show. I'm looking forward to seeing it (and hearing it, probably rated 'R' for language).

Got one more play night tomorrow then we'll wrap up August. As of now I'm up a little over $600 for the month (thanks to this weekend) and here is hoping I might add to that total tonight at the home game and/or on FTP tomorrow. Go me.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Found A Big Win, Yay!

This weekend I played a bunch and Sunday afternoon I finally hit a big score by chopping a $44 Rush Turbo MTT. I really like these Rush tournaments but because of how fast they can be I don't like to have more than one going at a time. Still, I ended up chopping as the chip leader for a shade over $1157.

Here is the final hand that was played in that game. I just wanted to bring this up for a little discussion:

FullTiltPoker Game #22933094581: $40 + $4 Rush Tournament (176978857), Table 9 - 5,000/10,000 Ante 1,000 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:32:44 ET - 2010/08/08

Seat 2: gohockey12 (192,738)
Seat 5: Timitriff (69,164)
Seat 7: Rycky4Poker (83,098)
gohockey12 antes 1,000
Timitriff antes 1,000
Rycky4Poker antes 1,000
Timitriff posts the small blind of 5,000
Rycky4Poker posts the big blind of 10,000
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rycky4Poker [As Qd]
Rycky4Poker: anyones game
gohockey12 raises to 40,000
Timitriff raises to 68,164, and is all in
Rycky4Poker has 15 seconds left to act
Rycky4Poker raises to 82,098, and is all in
gohockey12 folds
Rycky4Poker shows [As Qd]
Timitriff shows [Ac Ts]
Uncalled bet of 13,934 returned to Rycky4Poker
*** FLOP *** [5s 8d Jc]
*** TURN *** [5s 8d Jc] [Kh]
*** RIVER *** [5s 8d Jc Kh] [Th]
Rycky4Poker shows a straight, Ace high
Timitriff shows a pair of Tens
Rycky4Poker wins the pot (179,328) with a straight, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Duration 37s
Total pot 179,328 | Rake 0
Board: [5s 8d Jc Kh Th]
Seat 2: gohockey12 (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Timitriff (small blind) showed [Ac Ts] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 7: Rycky4Poker (big blind) showed [As Qd] and won (179,328) with a straight, Ace high

========================

I cross-posted this at www.pokerology.com as well.

1. The chip-leader had been fairly active throughout the final table as he has had a considerable edge for some time. He was raising often but only shown reasonable hands when called, including A9 that fell to my AJ reshove earlier. Usually he went 3x but notice here he made it 4x.

2. Considering stack sizes I considered the 4x bet a shove. When the SB elected to shove in as well I had a bit of a problem. At first glance AQo seems plenty strong enough but I wasn't quite sure ICM-wise. Two factors that made me call were these. First, the fact that I did have the SB covered did help, plus while he had been fairly tight I felt I did have his range beat. Second, since the CL had been opening often I figured his range was pretty wide... maybe not as wide as it should be but still enough that AQo is ahead enough to go.

3. The fact that the chip leader actually folded here tells us a couple things: Some people just don't understand odds/are bad at math and that you ALWAYS have fold equity. Even in a spot like this, where all indications were telling me that this guy had an idea of what he was doing, you just NEVER know.

Sure, he likely would have lost the hand but if he was gonna play he should have shoved. With effective stacks at 9BBs I see no reason to 4x/fold 3-handed with over half the chips in play. As it ends up he likely did save himself some cash since we chopped, but if I had knocked him down under 10BBs I might have been much less inclined to do it, despite my headache and general lack of sleep. I was still in the moment and playing sharp so there is argument that I should have taken my chances after seeing this.... but something told me to take the safe route when the deal page came up, LOL.

I checked the hand at holdemresources and if this guy was playing "perfectly" we would be shoving 60% of his hands. Considering that I could have overcalled decently wide myself (66+ A9s+ ATo+ KJs+). Even thinking he was wide I know its likely not 60%... but still enough that AQo easily plays here. I'd have folded 66-88, A9s, ATo, and the KX hands though... maybe even ATs and AJo.

I wish he had called though. :)

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Let's Play A Hand

I haven't done this in a while, so lets play! I'll cross post this on Pokerology also and use the replayer for the hand.

Full Tilt Poker Game #22520112225: $24 + $2 Rush Tournament (173904071), Table 21 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:10:48 ET - 2010/07/22
Seat 1: Michael Craig (8,380)
Seat 2: Hero (3,010)
Seat 3: Junior Augusto (5,200)
Seat 4: TourneRunr (5,750)
Seat 5: ballajr (3,680)
Seat 6: muligatani (1,560)
Seat 7: fengschu (4,990)
Seat 8: jba1986 (3,370)
Seat 9: pokerehdingys (2,420)
Hero posts the small blind of 30
Junior Augusto posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [9d 9c]
TourneRunr folds
ballajr folds
muligatani has 8 seconds left to act
muligatani folds
fengschu folds
jba1986 raises to 210
pokerehdingys folds
Michael Craig folds
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero raises to 600
Junior Augusto folds
jba1986 has 15 seconds left to act
jba1986 raises to 3,370, and is all in
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero folds
Uncalled bet of 2,770 returned to jba1986
jba1986 mucks
jba1986 wins the pot (1,260)

OK, as you see I ended up making a very rare 3-bet/fold move in this Rush MTT. This is how I feel about how it went down.

First, the villain pot-raises from the hijack to 210. Since its a Rush game, I have no read on the raise size. Often its a strong hand but not an absolute monster like AA. Sometimes players just hit the pot button every time they raise. We don't know.

I have 99 in the SB and elect to reraise to 600. To be honest, I'm just now noticing that I actually bet a little less than I usually would OOP... I would have thought I'd go 650-700 here normally. Regardless, I'm always reraising 99 against a hijack raise as a standard move and 600 is likely enough to get the message across.

Ah, but now he shoves all-in! Ooops. Now what? As you saw, I elected to fold since I felt 99 wouldn't win often enough against a 4-bet/shove range. I would need to win about 40% of the time here given the pot odds presented (pot was 3670, 2410 to call if I see it right) and unless this guy has 88 or AJ in his shove range, I don't have it. I don't think he does often enough at all, so I fold.

What's the problem you ask? I'm wondering if I just turned my hand into a bluff. If I'm going to be 3-bet folding in this spot do my cards really matter that much? I don't think so. I could have taken a hand outside of my reraising/calling range with a little flexability like T9o and done the same thing.

So what could I have done better here? Well, it seems I didn't plan ahead enough. Granted, its a Rush MTT and it wasn't the only game I was playing at the time, but I do look at stacks sizes. I should have seen that by reraising here I was leaving him a great spot to reshove on me as a re-resteal. Now this guy might not be able to pull that off but the spot is still going to give me fits (obviously).

This leaves me to believe that due to the stack sizes involved here, reraise/fold is just not smart here. That leaves 4 other options: fold, shove, call, or 3-bet/call a shove. We are just too strong to fold, that's out. Shove, while perhaps Nash-friendly and/or coupled with fold equity a potentially viable play, seems really spewy this deep... you tell me. So that leaves call and 3-bet/call.

Calling is reasonable to me. Generally I'll be playing fit or fold with my 99 like I would have with 33, either I hit a set or I'm done with the hand. The odds are there to set-mine so that's not an issue. I think this is the best option unless I decide that 99 is too strong to fold to that 3-bet, which leads us to that last option. Is 99 strong enough to go all the way here?

I'm thinking a stock 4-bet/shove range might be something like TT+/AK, but I gotta wonder if other hands just don't show up enough here to make 99 a call. Are guys really coming over the top of me with 66? AJ? KQs? Are they actually tighter (JJ+) or a combination of this? How wide does he think I am here? That would change his range also. I could be going 77+/AJ+ here... what would he go with against that type of range? Is 99 or AQ in there? If so, I still think I'm behind... but is bullshit in his range enough to change that?

If we had 1500 here I'd shove easily and just take my chances. Being this deep changes things. What do you think?