Found A Big Win, Yay!

This weekend I played a bunch and Sunday afternoon I finally hit a big score by chopping a $44 Rush Turbo MTT. I really like these Rush tournaments but because of how fast they can be I don't like to have more than one going at a time. Still, I ended up chopping as the chip leader for a shade over $1157.

Here is the final hand that was played in that game. I just wanted to bring this up for a little discussion:

FullTiltPoker Game #22933094581: $40 + $4 Rush Tournament (176978857), Table 9 - 5,000/10,000 Ante 1,000 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:32:44 ET - 2010/08/08

Seat 2: gohockey12 (192,738)
Seat 5: Timitriff (69,164)
Seat 7: Rycky4Poker (83,098)
gohockey12 antes 1,000
Timitriff antes 1,000
Rycky4Poker antes 1,000
Timitriff posts the small blind of 5,000
Rycky4Poker posts the big blind of 10,000
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rycky4Poker [As Qd]
Rycky4Poker: anyones game
gohockey12 raises to 40,000
Timitriff raises to 68,164, and is all in
Rycky4Poker has 15 seconds left to act
Rycky4Poker raises to 82,098, and is all in
gohockey12 folds
Rycky4Poker shows [As Qd]
Timitriff shows [Ac Ts]
Uncalled bet of 13,934 returned to Rycky4Poker
*** FLOP *** [5s 8d Jc]
*** TURN *** [5s 8d Jc] [Kh]
*** RIVER *** [5s 8d Jc Kh] [Th]
Rycky4Poker shows a straight, Ace high
Timitriff shows a pair of Tens
Rycky4Poker wins the pot (179,328) with a straight, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Duration 37s
Total pot 179,328 | Rake 0
Board: [5s 8d Jc Kh Th]
Seat 2: gohockey12 (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Timitriff (small blind) showed [Ac Ts] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 7: Rycky4Poker (big blind) showed [As Qd] and won (179,328) with a straight, Ace high

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I cross-posted this at www.pokerology.com as well.

1. The chip-leader had been fairly active throughout the final table as he has had a considerable edge for some time. He was raising often but only shown reasonable hands when called, including A9 that fell to my AJ reshove earlier. Usually he went 3x but notice here he made it 4x.

2. Considering stack sizes I considered the 4x bet a shove. When the SB elected to shove in as well I had a bit of a problem. At first glance AQo seems plenty strong enough but I wasn't quite sure ICM-wise. Two factors that made me call were these. First, the fact that I did have the SB covered did help, plus while he had been fairly tight I felt I did have his range beat. Second, since the CL had been opening often I figured his range was pretty wide... maybe not as wide as it should be but still enough that AQo is ahead enough to go.

3. The fact that the chip leader actually folded here tells us a couple things: Some people just don't understand odds/are bad at math and that you ALWAYS have fold equity. Even in a spot like this, where all indications were telling me that this guy had an idea of what he was doing, you just NEVER know.

Sure, he likely would have lost the hand but if he was gonna play he should have shoved. With effective stacks at 9BBs I see no reason to 4x/fold 3-handed with over half the chips in play. As it ends up he likely did save himself some cash since we chopped, but if I had knocked him down under 10BBs I might have been much less inclined to do it, despite my headache and general lack of sleep. I was still in the moment and playing sharp so there is argument that I should have taken my chances after seeing this.... but something told me to take the safe route when the deal page came up, LOL.

I checked the hand at holdemresources and if this guy was playing "perfectly" we would be shoving 60% of his hands. Considering that I could have overcalled decently wide myself (66+ A9s+ ATo+ KJs+). Even thinking he was wide I know its likely not 60%... but still enough that AQo easily plays here. I'd have folded 66-88, A9s, ATo, and the KX hands though... maybe even ATs and AJo.

I wish he had called though. :)